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读书笔记 |《投资最重要的事》(1)

  • 2026-02-15 22:22:04
读书笔记 |《投资最重要的事》(1)
【编者按】春节假期安排了2个方向的阅读，一是问止中医林大栋老师的《方剂学》，一是这本为巴菲特所推崇的《投资最重要的事》，并计划做读书笔记分享。似乎跨度很大，但生活从来就不是单行线，何况这跨年的牛市是时代赋予每个人的机遇，是属于有心人的浪潮。我们当然也可以乘风破浪，但必须先读懂水性，先挂云帆，才能济沧海。那么，先沉下心来学习吧。
01《学习第二层次思维》
很少人拥有成为杰出投资者的素质，所以不是人人都可以被训练出来。即使是最杰出的投资者，也不可能永远正确。（不能迷信大咖，你需要独立思考）
如果你决定“下海”，首先需要确定你想实现什么样的目标。如果是想获取市场的评均收益，可能买点指数基金是一个明智的选择；如果你想获得超越平均收益的成绩，那就需要良好的运气或者非凡的洞察力。单纯靠运气显然不现实，那么就得花精力集中在提高自己的洞察力上。
那就需要学习第二层次思维。
第一层次思维单纯而肤浅，几乎人人都能做到:“这是一家好公司，股票肯定会涨，买进。”第一层次思维者对相同的事件有些相同的看法，通常也会得出相同的结论，这是不可能取得优异结果的。
第二层次思维深邃、复杂而迂回:
未来可能出现的结果会在什么范围之内？
我认为会出现什么样的结果？
我正确的概率有多大？
人们的共识是什么？
我的预期与人们的共识差异有多大？
资产的当前价格与大众所认为的未来价格以及我所认为的未来价格相符程度如何？
价格中所反映的共识心理是过于乐观还是过于悲观？
如果大众的看法是正确的，那么资产价格将发生怎样的改变？如果我是正确的，资产价格又会怎样？
为了持之以恒地获得优异的投资回报，你必须成为第二层次思维者中的一员～你的判断必须比人们的共识更加正确、与众不同并且更好。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000673s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001098s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000578s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.001340s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000959s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001241s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001201s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 468667 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000935s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771202297 WHERE `id` = 468667 [ RunTime:0.002206s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000492s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468667 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000817s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 468667 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001212s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468667 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005789s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468667 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006791s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468667 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.015012s ]
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