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春节假期学习笔记1——投资时钟

  • 2026-02-15 19:02:59
春节假期学习笔记1——投资时钟
美林时钟在中国和美国的实际表现有差异，原因：
1、中美货币政策制定框架存在差异
2、我国大类资产的表现出了受货币政策影响外，还受到金融监管、改革等政策的影响
3、将通胀作为美林时钟周期划分的主要变量，会受限于它的概念、范畴不够清晰准确
改进美林时钟在我国的运用：
如果产出缺口和通胀是货币政策的一部分原因，那货币和信用派生可以理解为货币政策的主要结果。其中信用派生也是实际经济运行的结果，与大类资产之间的逻辑更为紧密。
我们把货币定义为货币政策的意图，央行可以通过货币政策来调控银行间市场的流动性。把信用定义为通过货币政策达到的实体经济效果。
2002年12月--2022年2月划分为28个周期
股市：
债市：
商品：
总结:
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000478s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000811s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000306s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000282s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000454s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000188s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000560s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 468654 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000380s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771202365 WHERE `id` = 468654 [ RunTime:0.007338s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000223s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000389s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 468654 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000749s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001895s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004375s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.006219s ]
0.091734s