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宏观学习笔记-19

  • 2026-03-01 18:37:34
宏观学习笔记-19
上一篇是石油是简单的商品金融视角，趁着伊朗的事情，我觉得更重要的一个角度是石油对世界意味着什么？
我们在之前的文章聊过，通胀影响利率，实际利率=名义利率-通胀。这是关乎货币主权信用的问题。通胀是受到成本影响，包括人力、原材料、资金。能源也是其中之一。
所以原油是运输和化工的锚。由此，我们再展开一层，当今世界格局里面，各方主要登台唱戏的对于能源价格的依赖角度是不一样的。
站在俄罗斯的角度，其经济是依赖能源出口的，俄乌战争达到现在，多方制裁的情况的下，俄罗斯经济还稳住，和能源的出口是离不开的。那么，如果切断能源，就打掉了俄罗斯的经济支柱之一。回想一下北溪就知道了。金融之外，还有战争手段可以用。
那么对于欧洲来说，人力成本昂贵，依赖对于俄罗斯的能源进口。那么能源价格下跌，对于欧洲是有利的，降低了能源成本，压制了俄罗斯。
这两天刷到一个视频，德国总理访华之后回去，说德国人太懒了，要卷起来。实质上，欧洲工业开始在部分领域被我们反超，有人的因素，也有能源的因素。能源成本昂贵，是严重打击工业企业运行的积极性的，也是欧洲工业衰败的部分原因。
看看懂王爆出来马克龙给他发的消息
所以，打赢伊朗，就能控制影响石油。进而，西方阵营就能压制俄罗斯，获取廉价能源，给工业化进程喘口气。老美通胀再压力再缓解一些。
在这个问题中，我们之前聊过的格陵兰的问题，反而是欧洲的敏感点。是有可能加速欧洲内部分裂的。
再回到地缘的影响，我们之前聊到过的委内瑞拉是主要大国鞭长莫及的地方。还在拜登任期的时候，当时国务卿老往印度跑。在两大阵营对抗过程中，找一个新的廉价商品生产基地。从人口数、人口年龄结构来看，南美和印度是二选一的。
如果伊朗没扛住，伊朗被西方阵营搞定，那么往东就是印度。这盘棋就连活了。
这就和之前的动作连上了，印度在减少俄罗斯石油采购，我们在帮忙
这么大阵仗，不可能是为了简单的石油在商品价格那点作用。只有地缘影响这个级别的利益，才能动这么大手段。
今年的商品大行情，和传统供需分析模型已经没关系了。今年的大变量是地缘格局和战略储备安全。
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  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/runtime/temp/6df755f970a38e704c5414acbc6e8bcd.php ( 12.06 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000620s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000711s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000332s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000277s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000479s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000198s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000518s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 471509 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000388s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772419765 WHERE `id` = 471509 [ RunTime:0.003672s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000290s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471509 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000480s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 471509 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000421s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471509 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002175s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471509 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.007163s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471509 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001737s ]
0.091633s