三峡水利（2014年年报）学习笔记
主营业务：水力发电、供电（枯水期需要外购电），水电装机容量25万千瓦
客户是：重庆市万州区；
核心竞争力：位置，发电供电一体；
风险点：特大干旱，枯水期长，对外担保；
竞争对手是：
竞争对手有何优势：
十年后公司是什么样：
2014年，房地产收入减少；
基本面：
年度 | 售电量 | 发电量 | 水电上网电价 | | 购电成本 | 购电成本 |
2001 | 5.82亿千瓦时 | | 千瓦时 | | 0.08-0.20元 | 0.22-0.42元 |
2002 | 7.75 | | | | 0.04-0.30 | 0.22-0.42 |
2003 | 7.42 | | | | 0.16-0.28 | 0.22-0.42 |
2004 | 6.37 | 自发4.69 | 0.182元 | | | |
2005 | 6.96 | 自发4.95 | 0.185 | | | |
2006 | 8.10 | 自发4.02 | 0.205 | | | 0.46 |
2007 | 8.02 | 自发4.69 | | | | 0.46 |
2008 | 8.68 | 上网10.22 | | | | |
2009 | 9.84 | 上网11.06 | | | | |
2010 | 11.61 | 上网12.78 | | | | |
2011 | 12.57 | 上网13.90 | | | | |
2012 | 13.39 | 上网14.92 | | | | |
2013 | 15.31 | 上网16.87 | | | | |
2014 | 15.67 | 上网17.28 | | | | |
分红：
年度 | 分红（亿） | 占当年归母净利润的比例 | 每股分红（元） | 送转增 | 扣除费用后实际募集资金（亿） |
2007 | 0.2095 | 51.28% | 0.10 | | |
2008 | 0.1047 | 21.79% | 0.05 | | |
2009 | 0.2095 | 41.40% | 0.10 | | |
2010 | 0.2675 | 41.54% | 0.10 | | 非公开发行3.8698 |
2011 | 0.2675 | 40.68% | 0.10 | | |
2012 | 0.5350 | 65.09% | 0.20 | | |
2013 | 0.3210 | 30.81% | 0.12 | | |
2014 | 0.4965 | 34.96% | 0.15 | | |
| | | | | 非公开发行8.3395（8.5999） |
简化利润表：单位：亿元
年度 | 总收入 | 同比＞15%（成长） | 毛利润 | 同比 | 毛利率＞40%有竞争优势 | 非国际归母净利润 | 同比＞15% （成长） | 净利率＞20%有竞争优势 | ROE＞20%有护城河 |
2002 | 3.33 | 14.21% | 1.21 | 3.41% | 36.33% | 0.08 | -59.28% | 2.40% | 1.59% |
2003 | 3.51 | 5.48% | 1.23 | 1.65% | 35.04% | -2.26 | -2825% | --- | -58.5% |
2004 | 4.02 | 14.56% | 1.51 | 22.76% | 37.47% | 0.10 | 2360% | 2.48% | 2.60% |
2005 | 3.83 | -4.84% | 1.54 | 1.98% | 40.20% | 0.20 | 98.30% | 5.22% | 4.81% |
2006 | 4.58 | 19.64% | 1.29 | -16.2% | 28.16% | 0.07 | -62.74% | 1.52% | 1.76% |
2007 | 5.06 | 9.88% | 1.70 | 31.78% | 33.59% | 0.40 | 279.49% | 7.90% | 9.10% |
2008 | 5.97 | 18.08% | 1.71 | 0.58% | 28.64% | 0.48 | 17.65% | 8.04% | 9.89% |
2009 | 6.23 | 4.34% | 1.71 | 0 | 27.44% | 0.50 | 5.29% | 8.02% | 9.74% |
2010 | 7.34 | 17.76% | 1.71 | 0 | 23.29% | 0.64 | 27.21% | 8.71% | 8.51% |
2011 | 8.26 | 12.53% | 1.63 | -4.67% | 19.73% | 0.65 | 2.13% | 7.86% | 6.62% |
2012 | 9.45 | 14.36% | 2.27 | 39.26% | 24.02% | 0.82 | 24.98% | 8.67% | 7.91% |
2013 | 13.69 | 44.84% | 2.74 | 20.70% | 20.01% | 1.04 | 26.77% | 7.59% | 9.52% |
2014 | 12.97 | -5.21% | 3.20 | 16.78% | 24.67% | 1.42 | 36.31% | 11.10% | 12.91% |
分季度收入：单位：亿元
年度 | Q1收入 | 归母净利 | Q2收入 | 归母净利 | Q3收入 | 归母净利 | Q4收入 | 归母净利 |
| | | | | | | | |
分市场收入:亿元
年度 | 售电收入 | 占比 | 毛利率 | | 占比 | 毛利率 | | 占比 | 毛利率 |
2001 | 2.49 | 85.39% | 37.95% | | | | | | |
2002 | 2.51 | 75.37% | 37.68% | | | | | | |
2003 | 2.78 | 79.20% | 34.98% | | | | | | |
2004 | 3.06 | 76.11% | 37.27% | | | | | | |
2005 | 2.97 | 77.54% | 37.75% | | | | | | |
2006 | 3.64 | 79.47% | 22.61% | | | | | | |
2007 | 3.87 | 76.48% | 30.29% | | | | | | |
2008 | 4.33 | 72.52% | 22.91% | | | | | | |
2009 | 5.29 | 84.91% | 26.99% | | | | | | |
2010 | 6.23 | 84.87% | 23.70% | | | | | | |
2011 | 6.77 | 81.96% | 20.00% | 勘察设计 | 占比 | 毛利率 | | | |
2012 | 7.44 | 78.73% | 27.46% | 1.70 | 17.98% | 11.44% | | | |
2013 | 8.62 | 62.96% | 22.61% | 3.62 | 26.44% | 15.63% | | | |
2014 | 8.95 | 69.00% | 26.60% | 3.11 | 23.97% | 23.67% | | | |
简化资产负债表：
年度 | 货币资金 | 类现金＞有息负债 | 日常经营所需资金=经现流流出小计 | 经营资产 | 投资资产 | 生产资产 | 占总资产比例 | 有息负债 | 有息负债/总资产 | 应付票据账款（上下游的地位） |
2007 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 5.01 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 9.56 | 72.15% | 5.60 | 42.32% | 0.78 |
2008 | 2.72 | 2.52 | 6.23 | 1.05 | 0.74 | 11.08 | 69.44% | 7.54 | 47.24% | 1.02 |
2009 | 2.76 | 2.46 | 6.77 | 0.95 | 1.62 | 12.13 | 68.42% | 5.84 | 48.16% | 0.78 |
2010 | 4.96 | 4.76 | 8.37 | 2.01 | 1.62 | 14.69 | 62.44% | 9.09 | 38.63% | 0.93 |
2011 | 3.41 | 3.41 | 9.88 | 3.16 | 3.09 | 18.96 | 65.63% | 13.27 | 45.94% | 1.22 |
2012 | 3.05 | 2.55 | 10.32 | 3.06 | 2.53 | 22.44 | 71.00% | 14.18 | 44.87% | 1.84 |
2013 | 5.04 | 4.84 | 12.68 | 2.575 | 1.77 | 25.09 | 71.23% | 16.01 | 45.44% | 2.00 |
2014 | 3.69 | 3.59 | 12.53 | 1.79 | 1.22 | 26.61 | 73.79% | 14.38 | 39.87% | 2.08 |
其中：
年度 | 应收账款原值（含增值税）＋商票＋合同资产 | 同比 ＜营收增幅 | 占营收比例＞15%说明产品不好卖＞25%周转就困难直接排除 | 账期 | 占总资产比例＜5%说明产品好卖 | 存货周转天数 | 预收款合同负债（上下游的地位） | 净资产 | 总资产 |
2003 | 0.88 | 8.64% | 25.07% | 92天 | 7.54% | | 0.10 | 3.85 | 11.67 |
2004 | 0.90 | 2.27% | 22.38% | 82天 | 7.95% | | 0.08 | 3.97 | 11.31 |
2005 | 0.60 | -33.3% | 15.66% | 58天 | 5.94% | | 0.07 | 4.24 | 10.10 |
2006 | 0.61 | 1.66% | 13.31% | 49天 | 5.22% | | 0.10 | 4.32 | 11.68 |
2007 | 0.36 | -40.98% | 7.11% | 26天 | 2.71% | | 0.10 | 4.69 | 13.25 |
2008 | 0.46 | 27.77% | 7.70% | 29天 | 2.88% | | 0.21 | 4.96 | 15.96 |
2009 | 0.45 | -2.17% | 7.22% | 27天 | 2.53% | | 0.51 | 5.43 | 17.74 |
2010 | 0.45 | 0 | 6.13% | 23天 | 1.91% | | 0.82 | 9.73 | 23.53 |
2011 | 0.49 | 8.88% | 5.93% | 22天 | 1.69% | | 0.95 | 10.13 | 28.90 |
2012 | 0.63 | 28.57% | 6.66% | 25天 | 1.99% | | 1.12 | 10.68 | 31.61 |
2013 | 0.42 | -33.33% | 3.06% | 12天 | 1.19% | | 1.07 | 11.19 | 35.23 |
2014 | 0.45 | 7.14% | 3.46% | 13天 | 1.24% | | 0.57 | 11.52 | 36.07 |
四费：
年度 | 销售费用 | 占营收比例 | 管理费用 | 研发费用 | 研发费用占营收比例 | 财务费用 | 四费合计 | 毛利润 | 占毛利润的比例应＜30%大于70%直接排除 |
2002 | 0.04 | 0.12% | 0.72 | | | 0.17 | 0.94 | 1.21 | 76.85% |
2003 | 0.05 | 1.42% | 1.96 | | | 0.15 | 2.17 | 1.23 | 176.42% |
2004 | 0.05 | 1.24% | 0.91 | | | 0.18 | 1.15 | 1.51 | 76.15% |
2005 | 0.08 | 2.08% | 0.89 | | | 0.17 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 74.87% |
2006 | 0.10 | 2.18% | 0.83 | | | 0.19 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 86.82% |
2007 | 0.14 | 2.76% | 0.67 | | | 0.28 | 1.10 | 1.70 | 65.05% |
2008 | 0.14 | 2.34% | 0.69 | | | 0.34 | 1.18 | 1.71 | 69.06% |
2009 | 0.03 | 0.48% | 0.75 | | | 0.37 | 1.15 | 1.71 | 67.66% |
2010 | 0.02 | 0.27% | 0.70 | | | 0.35 | 1.08 | 1.71 | 63.15% |
2011 | 0.02 | 0.24% | 0.88 | | | 0.51 | 1.42 | 1.63 | 87.30% |
2012 | 0.02 | 0.21% | 0.84 | | | 0.77 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 72.59% |
2013 | 0.03 | 0.21% | 0.97 | | | 0.80 | 1.81 | 2.74 | 66.16% |
2014 | 0.009 | 0.07% | 1.06 | | | 0.71 | 1.78 | 3.20 | 55.62% |
员工及薪酬：
年度 | 员工数 | 薪酬总额（亿元） | 平均年薪（万） | 人均营收（万） | 人均归母净利润（万） | 生产人员 | 销售人员 | 研发技术人员 | 无形资产 | 商誉＜净资产的10% |
2007 | 2114 | 0.8111 | 3.83 | 23.93 | 1.89 | 1522 | | 193 | 0.21 | 0 |
2008 | 2147 | 0.9274 | 4.31 | 27.80 | 2.23 | 1425 | | 239 | 0.30 | 0 |
2009 | 2053 | 1.0487 | 5.10 | 30.34 | 2.43 | 1366 | | 185 | 0.33 | 0 |
2010 | 2033 | 1.1090 | 5.45 | 36.10 | 3.14 | 1380 | | 169 | 0.32 | 0 |
2011 | 2007 | 1.3113 | 6.53 | 41.15 | 3.23 | 1343 | | 171 | 0.39 | 0 |
2012 | 2009 | 1.4635 | 7.28 | 47.03 | 4.08 | 1509 | 26 | 195 | 0.48 | 0 |
2013 | 1932 | 1.6510 | 8.54 | 70.85 | 5.38 | 1440 | 0 | 198 | 0.47 | 0 |
2014 | 1912 | 2.0232 | 10.58 | 67.83 | 7.42 | 1428 | 0 | 218 | 0.31 | |
现金流量表：
年度 | 销售收现＞营收(真钱) | 营收 | 经现流净额累计＞归母净利润是印钞机 | 归母净利润 | 投现流净额 | 筹现流净额 | 吸收投资 | 借款 |
2001 | 3.14＞ | 2.91 | 0.66＞ | 0.20 | -0.29 | -0.48 | 0 | 1.92 |
2002 | 3.70＞ | 3.33 | 1.05＞ | 0.08 | -0.89 | 0.11 | 0 | 2.45 |
2003 | 3.95＞ | 3.51 | 0.97＞ | -2.26 | -1.03 | 0.37 | 0 | 3.13 |
2004 | 4.46＞ | 4.02 | 0.37＞ | 0.10 | -0.42 | -0.24 | 0 | 2.71 |
2005 | 4.55＞ | 3.83 | 0.75＞ | 0.20 | -0.49 | -0.66 | 0 | 2.72 |
2006 | 5.30＞ | 4.58 | 0.83＞ | 0.07 | -1.30 | 1.06 | 0 | 3.54 |
2007 | 6.10＞ | 5.06 | 1.55＞ | 0.40 | -2.25 | 0.37 | 0.008 | 5.70 |
2008 | 6.76＞ | 5.97 | 1.26＞ | 0.48 | -1.35 | 1.21 | 0 | 5.99 |
2009 | 7.63＞ | 6.23 | 1.55＞ | 0.50 | -2.05 | 0.44 | 0 | 6.76 |
2010 | 8.73＞ | 7.34 | 1.45＞ | 0.64 | -3.10 | 3.94 | 4.10 | 5.92 |
2011 | 9.52＞ | 8.26 | 1.13＞ | 0.65 | -5.65 | 3.16 | 0 | 9.62 |
2012 | 10.94＞ | 9.45 | 1.96＞ | 0.82 | -2.10 | -0.72 | 0.05 | 7.35 |
2013 | 14.32＞ | 13.69 | 3.38＞ | 1.04 | -1.95 | 0.86 | 0 | 11.33 |
2014 | 13.89＞ | 12.97 | 3.56＞ | 1.42 | -2.13 | -2.67 | 0.12 | 5.67 |
自由现金流：
| 经现流净额 | 资本开支（含扩建） | ≈自由现金流 | 财报披露的自由现金流 | 现金类净增加额＞归母净利润 | 折旧摊销＞资本开支说明维持盈利能力不需要大量资本支出 |
2001 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.16 | | -0.11 | 0.38 |
2002 | 1.05 | 0.86 | 0.19 | | 0.27 | 0.34 |
2003 | 0.97 | 1.07 | --- | | 0.32 | 0.40 |
2004 | 0.37 | 0.71 | --- | | -0.28 | 0.42 |
2005 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 0.26 | | -0.39 | 0.42 |
2006 | 0.83 | 1.27 | --- | | 0.59 | 0.41 |
2007 | 1.55 | 1.72 | --- | | -0.31 | |
2008 | 1.26 | 1.79 | --- | | 1.12 | 0.59 |
2009 | 1.55 | 1.80 | --- | | -0.05 | 0.61 |
2010 | 1.45 | 3.00 | --- | | 2.29 | 0.64 |
2011 | 1.13 | 4.64 | --- | | -1.35 | 0.67 |
2012 | 1.96 | 3.20 | --- | | -0.86 | 0.91 |
2013 | 3.38 | 3.48 | --- | | 2.29 | 0.96 |
2014 | 3.56 | 3.67 | --- | | -1.25 | 1.05 |
增长率一致吗？
| 总收入增长率 | 销售收到的现金增长率 | 营业成本增长率 | 毛利润增长率 | 归母净利润增长率 | 应收账款增长率 | 存货增长率 | 销售费用增长率 | 管理费用增长率 |
2002 | 14.21% | 17.83% | 21.83% | 3.41% | -59.28% | -7.95% | | 84.61% | 13.26% |
2003 | 5.48% | 6.75% | 7.54% | 1.65% | -2825% | 8.64% | | 10.41% | 172.2% |
2004 | 14.56% | 48.66% | 10.33% | 22.76% | 2360% | 2.27% | | 5.66% | -4542% |
2005 | -4.84% | 2.01% | -8.93% | 1.98% | 98.30% | -33.3% | | 60.00% | -2.19% |
2006 | 19.64% | 16.48% | 43.49% | -16.2% | -62.74% | 1.66% | | 32.63% | -7.04% |
2007 | 9.88% | 15.09% | 2.12% | 31.78% | 279.49% | -40.9% | | 38.09% | -9.45% |
2008 | 18.08% | 10.81% | 26.78% | 0.58% | 17.65% | 27.77% | | -4.69% | 3.26% |
2009 | 4.34% | 12.86% | 6.10% | 0 | 5.29% | -2.17% | | -76.7% | 8.69% |
2010 | 17.76% | 14.41% | 24.55% | 0 | 27.21% | 0 | | -21.2% | -7.03% |
2011 | 12.53% | 9.04% | 17.76% | -4.67% | 2.13% | 8.88% | | -7.69% | 25.71% |
2012 | 14.36% | 14.91% | 8.41% | 39.26% | 24.98% | 28.57% | | 21.40% | -3.73% |
2013 | 44.84% | 30.89% | 52.43% | 20.70% | 26.77% | -33.3% | | 0.94% | 15.47% |
2014 | -5.21% | -3.00% | -10.7% | 16.78% | 36.21% | 7.14% | | -66.9% | 8.43% |
今天就学习到这里。
