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学习笔记----悬崖边的果子你别摘

  • 2026-05-30 22:29:39
学习笔记----悬崖边的果子你别摘
人性的周期性←→盈利变亏损
最近指数出现了背离，上证走势和科创走势一个朝下，一个朝上
这种情况，大部分人都懂，包括你我，都知道危险来临了
但是，能不能控制住节奏，能不能及时抽身，能不能及时落地盈利或者减仓降低风险
这，很考验一个人的人性状态，市场是人性试金石
我入市的头几年，就曾是处于一种自我人性不清楚的状态
吃过亏，有盈利了，看到了危险，但是骨子里人性那种赌性，被市场给激发
就是不愿意落地止盈，或者减仓或止损先回避
导致，从盈利变成亏损，继而一再激发人性的其他缺点：不甘心，总觉得这次肯定不一样
从盈利变成亏损，从亏损变成深套，从深套变成煎熬，等煎熬熬不住了，最终才离场，止损出局
而且这个状态，是周期性的，和周期股市一样，只要你不克服你的人性缺憾，就会周而复始，一再盈利到亏损。。。
简单的选择题
先提个醒，记住本次市场走势的这种历史经验
指数出现了背离，上证走势和科创走势一个朝下，一个朝上
有三种可能呢：
1. 科创和上涨之间互相拉扯，你涨他跌，你跌他涨，进入震荡时间
2.科创撑不住情绪，拐头朝下，再也撑不住市场情绪，继而引起上证加速下跌
3.科创足够强势，把上证向下的趋势给拉起来重新进入上升趋势
这三种可能，对于个人，就是个选择题，而且极其简单的选择题
我肯定选择等第3种情况出现的时候再交易啊，第1种和第2种情况，属于悬崖边缘，不确定过高，输的概率过大，危险性极高，需要避开，场外等待。
投资投机，从来都是追求确定性的过程
在确定性高的时机，盈利的可能性才高过亏损，才能总体上实现盈利状态
不要在大盘进入高不确定性的震荡或下跌时间去取食，这个时间是亏损的可能性高过盈利的！
大盘下跌的时候，泥沙俱下，无论基本面好坏与否！
与人性抗争=让人性服从市场的周期性
市场五千多只标的，从来都不缺机会
市场五千家公司，各种优质公司藏于市场，何必单恋一枝花
当市场开始出现指数间背离，或者趋势性一致的拐头朝下，往往都不会立马一路下跌，总会有反弹
这个可以历史回顾的：每一次大的回调，都给人充足的机会和时间离场
但是离不离得开，能不能及时抽身，这是个极度考验人性的问题
就跟最近当下的市场一样，处于一种山雨欲来风满楼的状态
这种属于高手交易时间，属于震荡市，属于钝刀子割肉，刀刀见红
每每这个时期，都是很多人大量亏损的开始，指数还没怎么回调呢，利润先没了
市场五千多只标的，从来都不缺机会
市场五千家公司，何必单恋一枝花
及时抽身，控制仓位，控制风险损失到最小化，躲开这个垃圾时间，等市场回暖趋势向上了再交易不迟，学会等待
大盘趋势向上时，敢于及时抓住机会狠狠多攒点盈利
大盘趋势向下时，果断离开，及时落地盈利不亏离场，甚至少亏离场，在市场之外坐看云卷云舒，等待下一次指数大盘的趋势向上
这就是多赚+少亏的周期性，让自己的动作进入这种市场的周期性
克服悬崖边缘的贪念，市场悬崖边缘，口味再好的果子，都别去摘！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000462s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000796s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000306s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000232s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000464s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000196s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000491s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 491757 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000370s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1780166450 WHERE `id` = 491757 [ RunTime:0.004592s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000724s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491757 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000503s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 491757 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000376s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491757 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000714s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491757 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.007998s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491757 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.009142s ]
0.099294s