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0206学习笔记:拒绝假设性内耗,接纳当下与变化

  • 2026-02-07 12:56:06
0206学习笔记:拒绝假设性内耗,接纳当下与变化
今日核心围绕投资逻辑、资产配置、认知成长三大维度，结合实际对话与案例，梳理关键学习要点，强化投资底层认知，规避常见误区。

一、投资核心原则：坚守逻辑，拒绝盲从与假设

（一）拒绝假设性内耗，接纳当下与变化

假设未选择的路更好、假设投资能侥幸获利，本质都是无意义的内耗，人生与投资均无绝对完美选项，换选择只是换一种痛苦。
人在假设时往往最“勇敢”，但这种勇敢源于对未知风险的忽略，并非真实能力；聪明人会拒绝回应假设性问题（如潘周聃），专注当下决策与结果。

（二）坚守稳定投资逻辑，区分“进化”与“颠覆”

投资成功的核心的是“稳定且自洽的投资逻辑”，如同“杀猪捅腚，各有刀法”，没有统一标准，但必须长期坚守、形成闭环。
个人投资选择：第一重仓张坤基金，核心认可其“进化而非颠覆”的投资逻辑——在原有框架内，主动配置跨境资产、科技股（如腾讯），适配市场但不脱离自身核心。
警惕极端转向：不希望林园、张坤重走但斌路线（从重仓茅台到猛踩茅台、ALL IN英伟达），这种180度转向是放弃自身逻辑、盲从热点，违背投资本质。
风格与逻辑绑定：个人投资风格是自身逻辑的外在体现（如懂懂从定投转向抓涨停板），即便短期可能盈利，也会脱离自身能力圈，不再是“现有的自己”，盈利无底层支撑。

二、资产配置：锚定核心价值，盘活资产，多元布局

（一）价值锚定：美元是核心，金本位无回归可能

金本位无法回归：全球GDP（百万亿美元量级）与黄金总价值（十万亿美元）体量不匹配，且GDP增速远超黄金开采增速；金本位核心是锁定兑换比例，推高金价会导致比例漂浮，背离其初衷，黄金终将回归金属属性，仅可选配、不配置亦可。
核心价值锚定：有生之年，美元是全球唯一真正的硬通货（海外体验可印证），合理换汇是有效的价值锚定方式。

（二）资产配置两大实操原则

资产国际化：无需实际出海，可通过合理合规换汇、购买跨境ETF等方式，分散单一货币/区域的资产风险。
盘活死资产，摒弃固有误区：

三、今日核心启示

投资层面：坚守自身能力圈与稳定逻辑，接受合理进化，拒绝极端颠覆与跟风博弈；资产配置需锚定核心价值（美元），多元布局、盘活存量，聚焦真实需求。
认知层面：个人认知与观点会随成长迭代，前后不一致是成长的证明；自身的阶段性，决定了朋友及所有关系的阶段性，接纳动态变化，不执着于永恒，是清醒的人生态度。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000701s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000754s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000376s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000259s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000573s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000184s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000588s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 466469 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000389s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770564179 WHERE `id` = 466469 [ RunTime:0.004801s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000238s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466469 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000403s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 466469 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000341s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466469 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000845s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466469 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.005088s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466469 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001752s ]
0.088677s