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学习笔记|数据不懂为什么

  • 2026-04-30 06:38:37
学习笔记|数据不懂为什么
    数字时代的到来正在悄然改变我们的科研模式。人类的通话、聊天、消费、出行、搜索、发表、转载；企业之间的交易往来、工商、税务，以及与之相关上下游企业等大量的信息，都被加上时间戳存储在相关方的服务器中，我们生活在充满数据的时代!
    面对海量数据，在科学研究中随之而来的是一种数据驱动的研究方式，对这些数据进行统计学分析、机器学习、深度学习等等，从而发现问题、分析问题、解决问题。很多研究人员的研究方向之一便是“数据挖掘”，让数据帮忙发现问题。这种认识问题的方式适应了大数据时代的要求，是我们认识这个世界的一种很好的方式，但也有一定的局限性。
    因为在数据驱动的研究中，人们更多的在总结数据呈现的规律，而非如何解释它，数据可以帮助我们发现解释变量和被解释变量的相关性，但却不能告诉我们这背后的原因。
    举个经典例子：吸烟是否导致肺癌？如果只看数据，会发现“吸烟”和“肺癌”确实高度相关——吸烟的人越多，患肺癌的人也越多。于是结论很简单：“吸烟和肺癌有关，为了健康，别抽了。”这个结论可能没错，但它没有解释底层机制。我们不知道，是因为吸烟让人经常咳嗽，咳嗽了就去拍X光，X光拍多了反而容易得肺癌？还是因为吸烟刺激了某些敏感基因，导致基因突变引发肺癌？
    因此，常常会做出如下结论：
  •     “穿大号鞋子的人智力更高”（其实是脚大的人年龄更大，年龄大的人智力测试经验更丰富）。
  • “增加用电量能提高冰淇淋销量”（其实是因为天热，用电和吃冰淇淋都是结果）。
  • “接种疫苗有死亡风险，那就别打了”（忽略了不接种的风险更高）
    实际研究中情况往往比这更复杂，所以在基于相关关系研究中得出来的结论，读者可能更需要留个心眼儿。
    “思维胜于数据”，是Pearl在《The book of why》的开篇提出的观点，他将数据驱动的科研方式称为因果关系的第一个层级，如今的机器学习、深度学习、统计学都属于此范畴，停留在相关的层面；第二层级则是干预，它在第一层级的基础上，涉及到干预，即所谓的do算子，我如果实施...行动，结果会怎么样？第三层级则是反事实阶段，即如果我不这样做，会发生什么？很有启发性的一本书。
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  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/runtime/temp/6df755f970a38e704c5414acbc6e8bcd.php ( 12.06 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/no.67808.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000506s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000631s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000295s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000307s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000605s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000759s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000598s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 484662 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005465s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1777539492 WHERE `id` = 484662 [ RunTime:0.020534s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000764s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484662 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003066s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 484662 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006544s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484662 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.030622s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484662 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.017748s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484662 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.023236s ]
0.182502s