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学习笔记:决策模型

  • 2026-03-09 16:34:58
学习笔记:决策模型

学习笔记：决策模型

Anna Duke在她的书里分享的高质量的决策模型：

1. 结果偏误认知
好结果≠好决策，好决策≠好结果。如同酒驾未出事故不代表决策正确，关键要看决策过程是否合理，而非单纯以结果论英雄。

2. 时间旅行测试（10-10-10法则）
面对选择时问自己：这个决定在10天、10个月、10年后会有什么影响？若三个时间维度都无实质影响（如选择菜单），则不必耗费精力，直接抛硬币决定即可。

3. 单向门与双向门决策
- 单向门：不可逆决定（如卖房创业、生孩子），需谨慎准备。
- 双向门：可逆决定（如尝试新穿搭、做自媒体），占生活中99%的决策，只需80%把握即可行动，用最低成本获取真实反馈。

4. 非对称风险评估
避免"对称性差的选择"（如为每月2000元收入做几十万担保）。寻找下限风险有限但上限收益无限的机会，如每天花2小时做自媒体，最大损失只是时间，却可能彻底改变职业命运。

5. 战略性放弃艺术
像职业扑克选手（弃牌率达80%）一样，懂得适时退出。提前白纸黑字制定退出协议：若未达客观目标，不带感情色彩地停止项目/辞职/离开，释放错误机会成本，让人生重回上升通道。

实践精髓：小事上节约算力，大事上敢推双向门，押注非对称风险，未达预期果断退场。

#理性思考的方法 #生活中的决策智慧 #时间旅行测试 #认知升级 #思维成长

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000834s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_67808;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000901s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000244s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000266s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000544s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000208s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000618s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 473333 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000373s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1773065644 WHERE `id` = 473333 [ RunTime:0.011927s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000367s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 473333 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000455s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 473333 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000421s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 473333 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000554s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 473333 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002041s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 473333 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002007s ]
0.089141s