中国心连心化肥（2021年财报）学习笔记
公司主要生产煤基尿素，属于“煤化工”企业，煤炭的价格对利润影响较大。
2021年，甲醇、三聚氰胺、二甲醚价格上涨；
2021年，尿素量价齐升；
基本面：
年度 | 尿素销量 | 复合肥 | 甲醇 | 二甲醚 | 尿素价格 | 出口 |
2012 | 116.8万吨 | 37.3万吨 | 22.3万吨 | | | 695万吨 |
2013 | 122.3 | 48.8 | 27.5 | | | |
2014 | 195.8 | 60.5 | 33.8 | | 1535元/吨 | |
2015 | 218.5 | 82.0 | 34.1 | | 1481 | |
2016 | 258.9 | 94.8 | 33.7 | | | |
2017 | 201.5 | 124.4 | 32.7 | | | |
2018 | 199.9 | 139.6 | 14.9 | 31.4万吨 | | |
2019 | 190.6 | 137.3 | 4.0 | 32.0 | | |
2020 | 194.7 | 161.0 | 3.55 | 30.9 | | |
2021 | 226.4 | 156.9 | | | | |
分红：
年度 | 分红（亿） | 占当年归母净利润的比例 | 每股分红（元） | 送转增 | 扣除费用后实际募集资金（亿） |
2012 | 0.63 | 20% | 0.063 | | |
2013 | 0.60 | 23% | 0.06 | | |
2014 | 0.60 | 25% | 0.06 | | |
2015 | 0.83 | 20% | 0.083 | | |
2016 | 0.47 | 162% | 0.04 | | |
2017 | 0.85 | 20.16% | 0.0849 | | |
2018 | 1.1716 | 18.75% | 0.10 | | |
2019 | 0.9373 | 29.62% | 0.08 | | |
2020 | 1.1620 | 22.17% | 0.10 | | |
2021 | 2.2260 | 17.2% | 0.19 | | |
简化利润表：单位：亿元
年度 | 总收入 | 同比＞15% （成长） | 毛利润 | 同比 | 毛利率＞40%有竞争优势 | 非国际归母净利润 | 同比＞15% （成长） | 净利率＞20%有竞争优势 | ROE＞20%有护城河 |
2012 | 39.45 | 7% | 7.20 | | 18.2% | 3.11 | 71.8% | 7.88% | 13.35% |
2013 | 39.69 | 0.6% | 7.48 | 3.88% | 18.8% | 2.59 | -16.6% | 6.52% | 10.30% |
2014 | 50.82 | 28% | 8.99 | 20.18% | 17.7% | 2.37 | -8.5% | 4.66% | 8.86% |
2015 | 57.88 | 13.9% | 13.24 | 47.2% | 22.87% | 4.08 | 72.2% | 7.04% | 13.59% |
2016 | 57.11 | -1.3% | 10.24 | -22.6% | 17.93% | 0.29 | -92.9% | 0.50% | 0.88% |
2017 | 75.62 | 32% | 15.87 | 54.98% | 21% | 4.24 | 1112% | 5.60% | 12.59% |
2018 | 91.95 | 22% | 22.40 | 41.14% | 24% | 6.55 | 54% | 7.12% | 16.70% |
2019 | 89.28 | -3% | 19.41 | -13% | 22% | 4.14 | -37% | 4.63% | 9.77 |
2020 | 104.45 | 17% | 22.15 | 14% | 21.20% | 5.24 | 27% | 5.01% | 11.56% |
2021 | 168.15 | 61% | 43.89 | 98% | 26% | 12.94 | 272% | 7.69% | 22.72% |
分季度收入：单位：亿元
年度 | Q1收入 | 归母净利 | Q2收入 | 归母净利 | Q3收入 | 归母净利 | Q4收入 | 归母净利 |
| | | | | | | | |
分市场收入:亿元
年度 | 尿素 | 占比 | 毛利率 | 复合肥 | 毛利率 | 占比 | 甲醇 | 毛利率 | 占比 |
2012 | 24.99 | 63.3% | 22.9% | 9.38 | 13.6% | 23.8% | 4.95 | 3.9% | 12.5% |
2013 | 22.58 | 56.9% | 22.1% | 10.96 | 10.9% | 27.6% | 6.01 | 21.2% | 15.1% |
2014 | 30.05 | 59.13% | 16.6% | 12.46 | 15.7% | 24.51% | 6.72 | 25.0% | 13.22% |
2015 | 32.36 | 67.1% | 27.4% | 17.66 | 19.9% | 26.5% | 5.48 | 12.4% | 5.1% |
2016 | 29.40 | 52% | 19% | 16.58 | 17.0% | 29% | 5.32 | 16.8% | 9% |
2017 | 28.52 | 38% | 23% | 22.72 | 14% | 30% | 6.85 | 19% | 9% |
2018 | 35.49 | 39% | 31% | 28.07 | 15% | 31% | 甲醇二甲醚 | 15% | 4% |
2019 | 33.13 | 38% | 28.1% | 28.52 | 15.8% | 32% | 9.92 | -0.1%5% | 11% |
2020 | 30.80 | 30% | 27.3% | 31.58 | 17.1% | 30% | 12.62 | 2.5%5.8% | 12% |
2021 | 49.59 | 29% | 33.5% | 37.54 | 13.1% | 22% | 31.98 | 12%12% | 19% |
简化资产负债表：
年度 | 货币资金 | 类现金＞有息负债 | 日常经营所需资金=经现流流出小计 | 经营资产 | 生产资产 | 占总资产比例 | 有息负债 | 有息负债/总资产 | 应付票据账款（上下游的地位） |
2012 | | 4.77 | | 6.40 | 39.77 | 77.72% | 22.20 | 50.8% | |
2013 | | 7.97 | | 6.62 | 56.58 | 77.48% | 37.54 | 61.9% | |
2014 | | 6.33 | | 14.63 | 71.48 | 74.55% | 35.95 | 37.49% | |
2015 | | 5.81 | | 12.55 | 81.38 | 75.11% | 52.58 | 48.53% | |
2016 | | 5.12 | | 13.21 | 83.21 | 75.70% | 51.57 | 47.23% | |
2017 | | 3.41 | | 20.53 | 87.22 | 73.26% | 57.11 | 47.97% | |
2018 | | 3.46 | | 23.80 | 91.17 | 66.76% | 60.35 | 44.19% | 5.62 |
2019 | | 8.84 | | 22.32 | 106.35 | 64.49% | 74.01 | 44.88% | 11.75 |
2020 | | 6.82 | | 22.50 | 152.11 | 72.58% | 98.37 | 46.94% | 16.19 |
2021 | | 8.93 | | 41.18 | 184.22 | 72.22% | 118.63 | 46.51% | 16.24 |
其中：
年度 | 应收账款原值（含增值税）＋商票＋合同资产 | 同比 ＜营收增幅 | 占营收比例＞15%说明产品不好卖＞25%周转就困难直接排除 | 账期 | 占总资产比例＜5%说明产品好卖 | 存货周转天数 | 预收款合同负债（上下游的地位） | 净资产 | 总资产 |
2012 | 0.17 | | | | | 49天 | | 23.28 | 51.17 |
2013 | 0.13 | | | | | 30天 | | 25.13 | 73.02 |
2014 | | | | | | 30天 | | 26.73 | 95.88 |
2015 | 0.68 | | | | | 38天 | | 30.01 | 108.35 |
2016 | 0.84 | | | | | 35天 | | 32.82 | 109.19 |
2017 | 1.62 | | | | | 44天 | | 33.66 | 119.05 |
2018 | 3.31 | | | | | 56天 | 6.89 | 39.21 | 136.55 |
2019 | 3.93 | | | | | 52天 | 5.82 | 42.35 | 164.90 |
2020 | 7.44 | | | | | 44天 | 8.18 | 45.30 | 209.55 |
2021 | 10.12 | | | | | 48天 | 10.79 | 56.93 | 255.06 |
四费：
年度 | 销售费用 | 销售费用占营收比例 | 管理费用 | 研发费用 | 研发费用占营收比例 | 财务费用 | 四费合计 | 毛利润 | 占毛利润的比例应＜30%大于70%直接排除 |
2012 | 0.69 | 1.74% | 2.02 | | | 0.82 | 3.53 | 7.20 | 49.02% |
2013 | 0.82 | 2.06% | 2.76 | | | 0.95 | 4.53 | 7.48 | 60.56% |
2014 | 1.98 | 3.89% | 2.43 | | | 2.18 | 6.59 | 8.99 | 73.30% |
2015 | 3.47 | 5.99% | 3.17 | | | 2.28 | 8.92 | 13.23 | 67.42% |
2016 | 4.35 | 7.61% | 3.19 | | | 2.66 | 10.2 | 10.24 | 99.60% |
2017 | 4.83 | 6.38% | 4.16 | | | 2.86 | 11.85 | 15.87 | 74.66% |
2018 | 5.08 | 5.52% | 4.97 | | | 3.25 | 13.30 | 22.40 | 59.37% |
2019 | 5.16 | 5.77% | 6.61 | | | 3.74 | 15.51 | 19.41 | 79.90% |
2020 | 6.21 | 5.94% | 6.24 | | | 4.01 | 16.46 | 22.15 | 74.31% |
2021 | 7.63 | 4.53% | 9.35 | | | 5.83 | 22.81 | 43.89 | 51.97% |
员工及薪酬：
年度 | 员工数 | 薪酬总额（亿元） | 平均年薪（万） | 人均归母净利润（万） | 生产人员 | 销售人员 | 研发技术人员 | 商誉＜净资产10% |
2012 | 4073 | 2.5478 | 6.25 | 7.63 | | | | 0.06＜ |
2013 | 5026 | 2.3404 | 4.65 | 5.15 | | | | 0.06＜ |
2014 | 5588 | 3.4043 | 6.09 | 4.24 | | | | 0.06＜ |
2015 | 6665 | 3.9118 | 5.86 | 6.12 | | | | 0.25＜ |
2016 | 6542 | 3.9882 | 6.09 | 0.44 | | | | 0.25＜ |
2017 | 6119 | 6.2582 | 10.22 | 6.92 | | | | 0.25＜ |
2018 | 6485 | 6.8790 | 10.60 | 10.10 | | | | 0.29＜ |
2019 | 7036 | 7.0790 | 10.06 | 5.88 | | | | 0.29＜ |
2020 | 8267 | 8.6684 | 10.48 | 6.33 | | | | 0.63＜ |
2021 | 8698 | 11.7932 | 13.55 | 14.87 | | | | 0.63＜ |
现金流量表：
年度 | 销售收现＞营收(真钱) | 营收 | 经现流净额累计＞归母净利润是印钞机 | 归母净利润 | 投现流净额 | 筹现流净额 | 吸收投资 | 借款 |
2011 | | 39.46 | 8.14＞ | 3.11 | -12.01 | 4.99 | 0 | 12.92 |
2013 | | 39.69 | 10.21＞ | 2.59 | -17.66 | 12.93 | 0 | 26.42 |
2014 | | 50.82 | 9.56＞ | 2.37 | -19.97 | 8.77 | 0 | 24.05 |
2015 | | 57.88 | 5.10＞ | 4.08 | -12.72 | 7.09 | 0 | 24.76 |
2016 | | 57.11 | 3.64＞ | 0.29 | -6.84 | 2.50 | 0 | 20.64 |
2017 | | 75.62 | 6.77＞ | 4.24 | -13.28 | 4.79 | 0 | 27.14 |
2018 | | 91.95 | 11.91＞ | 6.55 | -15.43 | 3.57 | 0 | 36.51 |
2019 | | 89.28 | 23.01＞ | 4.14 | -32.86 | 15.23 | 7.96 | 53.89 |
2020 | | 104.45 | 17.04＞ | 5.24 | -39.01 | 19.95 | 2.33 | 79.40 |
2021 | | 168.15 | 27.45＞ | 12.94 | -37.25 | 11.91 | 0 | 78.36 |
自由现金流：
| 经现流净额 | 资本开支（含扩建） | ≈自由现金流 | 财报披露的自由现金流 | 现金类净增加额＞0 | 折旧摊销＞资本开支说明维持盈利能力不需要大量资本支出 |
2012 | 8.14 | 11.89 | -- | | -0.36 | 1.83 |
2013 | 10.21 | 16.31 | -- | | 3.20 | 1.88 |
2014 | 9.56 | 16.29 | -- | | -1.64 | 3.30 |
2015 | 5.10 | 16.22 | -- | | -0.52 | 3.92 |
2016 | 3.64 | 8.24 | -- | | -0.68 | 5.35 |
2017 | 6.77 | 13.60 | -- | | -1.71 | 6.20 |
2018 | 11.91 | 13.84 | -- | | 0.04 | 6.53 |
2019 | 23.01 | 28.67 | -- | | 5.38 | 6.81 |
2020 | 17.04 | 39.20 | -- | | -2.02 | 7.32 |
2021 | 27.45 | 37.97 | -- | | 2.11 | 10.23 |
增长率一致吗？
| 总收入增长率 | 销售收到的现金增长率 | 营业成本增长率 | 毛利润增长率 | 归母净利润增长率 | 应收账款增长率 | 销售费用增长率 | 管理费用增长率 | 所得税增长率 |
2012 | 7% | | 1% | 42% | 71.8% | | | | 38% |
2013 | 0.6% | | -0.15% | 3.88% | 16.6% | | 18.84% | 36.3% | -14.4% |
2014 | 28% | | 30% | 20% | -8.5% | | 141% | -12% | -6% |
2015 | 13.9% | | 6.7% | 47.2% | 72.2% | | 75.25% | 30.45% | 42.85% |
2016 | -1.3% | | 5.0% | -22.6% | -92.9% | | 25.36% | 0.31% | 84.3% |
2017 | 32% | | 27.48% | 54.98% | 1112% | | 11.03% | 30.40% | 454% |
2018 | 22% | | 16.42% | 41.14% | 54% | | 5.39% | 19.51% | 100% |
2019 | -3% | | 0.5% | -13% | -37% | | 1.57% | 32.99% | -8.19% |
2020 | 17% | | 17.8% | 14% | 27% | | 20.34% | -5.59% | -4.46% |
2021 | 61% | | 51% | 98% | 272% | | 22.86% | 49.83% | 279% |
风险点：煤炭涨价，化肥价格下跌，利率上升（有息贷款高），公司对原材料没有定价权，对产品也没有定价权。
今天就学习到这里。
10个月宝宝每天需要喝多少奶粉？
